Recently we had enrollment projections completed by Cooperative Strategies. There have been mixed signals in our region when it comes to public school enrollment. With the Intel project and other development projects throughout Central Ohio, we all expect growth in our region. However, the combination of housing prices and interest rates has certainly slowed housing turnover in our area. From a planning perspective, it’s important for us to evaluate what these items may mean for future enrollment numbers.
The completed report can be viewed here. It’s dense, with 100+ pages of data, and provides interesting reading. I would encourage you to spend some time and dig into the report. On the most basic level, here is what it projects:
Expect slight increases from 10,758 students (24-25) to 11,127 students (33-34).
Now, this report doesn’t account for future development projects that create new housing options where permits have not yet been filed. In Worthington we’d expect some parcels of land to develop at some point in the future and likely some changeover from office property to housing as there is a glut of office and a shortage of housing. However, we are a mostly built-out school district, so overall, these changes won’t likely have a major impact on the district.
The enrollment projections are by elementary school boundary of residence for Worthington Schools included in this report were developed using the cohort survival methodology and Cooperative Strategies’ custom enrollment projection software, S.T.E.P. [Student Trends & Enrollment Projections]. This custom software was developed in collaboration with The Ohio State University and is based on industry best practices as well as the national experience Cooperative Strategies has with schools, school districts, and state agencies. Worthington Schools serves 10,758 students in 1 pre-school, 11 elementary schools, 5 middle schools, and 2 high schools in the 2023-24 school year.
The projections presented in this report were developed based on students living within the
current elementary school boundaries and are meant to serve as a planning tool for the future,
representing the most likely direction of the district. Enrollment projections were developed using the cohort survival methodology and by analyzing the following data outlined in this report:
Enrollment in Worthington Schools has increased by 1,037 students from the 2014-15 to the 2023-24 school year. You’ll see in the report that the projections are based on the cohort survival methodology, and look at the following data points:
• Historical enrollment by elementary school boundary, by grade, by year
• Resident live birth data
• Census data
• Building permits
Enrollment projects are just that, best guesses with the available data at the time they are made. Overall, this report would tell us that we should plan for enrollment to continue to increase slightly over the next ten years. We’ll update these projections periodically as new data becomes available and decisions need to be made for the future.
Happy Reading!
-Trent Bowers, Superintendent
Absolute Excellence 